Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
Can Sirius Survive Without Howard Stern?
I've been playing with a blog with fake Howard Stern news. Taking strange news stories and then adding a made up Howard Stern spin. It's meant as comedy, but maybe it's not that funny. Because it seems like just about all news these days concerning Howard is already made up. Here's a great example:
Obviously, there's no story here. Just an unscientific poll by a completely random sample of people. Of course, the only thing of interest is the Howard Stern name, so they drag the information about that on to the second page to try to get more hits. Unfortunately, this kind of bullshit works to get clicks.
But since they bring up the subject, let's play it straight. As I've mentioned before, Howard Stern's broadcast gets OVER TWICE the listeners of ANY other broadcast on Sirius. In second place, top 40 music. Nothing else, comes close. Sports is way down on the list. Over 45% of Sirius/XM subscribers listen to Howard Stern at least once a week. Over 26% are daily listeners. The loss of Howard Stern could single handily cut Sirius/XM revenue in half.
One of the big disappointments with Sirius/XM has been sports, which have not gotten huge listeners. This has a lot to due with the limits of the technology. Sirius/XM works best in cars, so most listeners are either commuters or casual listeners on their way somewhere else. Sports fans often listen in their homes, or garage, or offices, where Sirius/XM has less of a presence.
So can Sirius/XM survive without Howard Stern? Yes, probably. But will it take a huge hit in profits? Yes, unquestionably. Should it keep spending on sports, or Howard? Howard.
And if you want to check out some "real" fake Howard Stern News, below is the link. I'm still playing with it. (Please ad lots of goofy comments. That's kind of the point.)
Friday, January 29, 2010
Clear Channel Desperate for Howard: Press Desperate for A Story
So I spent a lot of time in previous posts tearing apart, inch by inch, the AP piece on Howard Stern's options after leaving Sirius. I did this, not only because it was all bullshit, but also for the record because I knew the story would spin in a new direction once Howard gets closer to having to make an actual decision about what do do next.
Because when it comes to Howard Stern, the press operates kind of like Big Brother in 1984. Like in the novel, they say one thing one week, and then the opposite the next week, without ever admitting they changed their facts.
So, just a few months ago, the press was all repeating how Howard couldn't go back to traditional broadcast radio. Now they're starting to say he could, but only if he'll "clean up his act." Here's a typical piece:
Of course, Howard has already said he won't go back to Clear Channel. So they're fooling themselves to think he would "clean up" just for them.
But here's a prediction: in the next few months, Howard will be fielding tons of offers to return to broadcast radio, and the press will write about them like it's likely to happen.
And Clear Channel will not only make serious offers to Howard, but they'll completely shut up about him having to "clean up." They'll simply offer him piles of money. Howard will probably float the idea of setting up his own broadcast network, and Clear Channel stations will beg to come aboard, no strings attached.
Whether Howard will take the deal or stay on Sirius, will be up to him. I actually think there's a 50% chance he'll return to traditional broadcast. Not only with his own show, but with entire programming blocks. He might even do a deal with broadcast and remain on Sirius in an "uncensored" format. Howard has nothing but options.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
LA Times on Stern Contract
Here's a pretty good piece on the status of Howard Stern's Contract negotiations. The press is finally catching up with what I said a long time ago. Howard has plenty of options:
Unfortunately, it ends with Media Lie #5. Howard needs traditional radio for a "bullhorn." That's crap. See my earlier post:
Monday, January 25, 2010
Would Sirius Survive if Howard Stern Left?
Here's a really moronic piece on the Howard Stern negotiations:
It says that Sirius might be better off without Howard Stern and his FCC censorship problems. What? The whole selling point of Sirius is that it isn't censored! Without Howard, half the argument for paying for radio is gone. What the hell is this blogger thinking?
It mentions that Sirius has other high priced talent. But what it fails to mention is that Howard's ratings on Sirius are TWICE that of any other station.
What comes in second? Top 40 music. Nothing else comes close. None of the other high priced talent on Sirius comes close to Howard's ratings. Close as in much less than a quarter. Even sports has been mostly a bust for Sirius XM. Oh, and guess what, Howard has commercials. Sirius makes extra money from those. Sirius music stations (the only thing close to Howard's ratings) don't have commercials and don't make extra money.
Sirius does need to save money on talent. It needs to fire people who aren't Howard Stern. And it needs to pay whatever it takes to hold on to him. Or he will go back to traditional broadcast and Sirius just might not survive.
Clear Channel Offer to Howard Stern to Return to Traditional Radio?
As I predicted, as Howard Stern's Sirius deal winds down, traditional broadcasters are sending out the message that they want him back. Badly. Here's a good piece on it:
But Howard is too smart to go back to Clear Channel. Clear Channel not only would make big money from Howard Stern ratings, but Howard as a direct competitor would severely hurt them. So signing Howard and then trying to bury him with old style FCC type censorship probably appeals to them. Clear Channel doesn't want a hugely successful Howard Stern.
Yet Howard doesn't need Clear Channel anymore. His time on Sirius helped free him of all his old contracts and obligations. It also provided proof positive that his absence on broadcast killed radio station ratings across the board. Now he can create his own network of traditional radio stations from scratch and build in a legal warchest to fight the FCC if they come after him. Trust me, if Howard returns to traditional broadcast, censorship will not be a problem.
Neither will money.
Friday, January 22, 2010
Will Howard Stern Return to Broadcast Radio as Conqueror and King?
As I predicted, Howard Stern does have the option of returning to traditional broadcast radio when his contract with Sirius expires this year. He's already getting offers:
But isn't he worried about being muzzled by the FCC? Didn't he hate broadcast radio? Well, yes and no. Howard made his career in broadcast radio. He understands the medium better than any other radio host. The biggest problem is that he was way ahead of his time. He was constantly pushing the envelope and traditional broadcasters didn't understand what he was doing and often didn't appreciate it.
But since Howard has left for satellite, times have changed. The world has caught up with Howard. Gay jokes? No problem. Penis jokes? No problem. A morning DJ that doesn't simply play music? Of course. Lesbian dating? All over MTV. The big TV networks are fighting the FCC heavily on censorship and winning. Those corporations used to roll over to the FCC, and now they are following Howard's lead and battling it.
More importantly, when Howard left traditional radio it was a hotbed of crazy conservatives taking over stations who wanted FCC approval. That's pretty much gone away. On top of that, back in the day, Howard was tied into contracts with stations that weren't fully supportive, and underestimated his value. That's not going to happen again.
If Howard decides to return to traditional radio he can pick and choose his stations from scratch. He can build a huge syndicated national network and contractually guarantee they'll fight in court with the FCC if he has any problems. If he wants, he can fill hours more of programing with the after show, Bubba, Riley Martin and other programing from his two satellite channels. He could have a late night "Best of Howard Stern" program. And demand more money that God. In other words, he could return to traditional radio as a conqueror and king.
And that just might appeal to him.
Are you listening, Mel?
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