Clear Channel Desperate for Howard: Press Desperate for A Story

So I spent a lot of time in previous posts tearing apart, inch by inch, the AP piece on Howard Stern's options after leaving Sirius. I did this, not only because it was all bullshit, but also for the record because I knew the story would spin in a new direction once Howard gets closer to having to make an actual decision about what do do next.

Because when it comes to Howard Stern, the press operates kind of like Big Brother in 1984. Like in the novel, they say one thing one week, and then the opposite the next week, without ever admitting they changed their facts.

So, just a few months ago, the press was all repeating how Howard couldn't go back to traditional broadcast radio. Now they're starting to say he could, but only if he'll "clean up his act." Here's a typical piece:

Clear Channel Wants Howard Stern

Of course, Howard has already said he won't go back to Clear Channel. So they're fooling themselves to think he would "clean up" just for them.

But here's a prediction: in the next few months, Howard will be fielding tons of offers to return to broadcast radio, and the press will write about them like it's likely to happen.

And Clear Channel will not only make serious offers to Howard, but they'll completely shut up about him having to "clean up." They'll simply offer him piles of money. Howard will probably float the idea of setting up his own broadcast network, and Clear Channel stations will beg to come aboard, no strings attached.

Whether Howard will take the deal or stay on Sirius, will be up to him. I actually think there's a 50% chance he'll return to traditional broadcast. Not only with his own show, but with entire programming blocks. He might even do a deal with broadcast and remain on Sirius in an "uncensored" format. Howard has nothing but options.

LA Times on Stern Contract

Here's a pretty good piece on the status of Howard Stern's Contract negotiations. The press is finally catching up with what I said a long time ago. Howard has plenty of options:

LA TIMES on Howard Stern Deal

Unfortunately, it ends with Media Lie #5. Howard needs traditional radio for a "bullhorn." That's crap. See my earlier post:

Media Lie #5

Would Sirius Survive if Howard Stern Left?

Here's a really moronic piece on the Howard Stern negotiations:

Sirius Doesn't Need Howard Stern?

It says that Sirius might be better off without Howard Stern and his FCC censorship problems. What? The whole selling point of Sirius is that it isn't censored! Without Howard, half the argument for paying for radio is gone. What the hell is this blogger thinking?

It mentions that Sirius has other high priced talent. But what it fails to mention is that Howard's ratings on Sirius are TWICE that of any other station.

What comes in second? Top 40 music. Nothing else comes close. None of the other high priced talent on Sirius comes close to Howard's ratings. Close as in much less than a quarter. Even sports has been mostly a bust for Sirius XM. Oh, and guess what, Howard has commercials. Sirius makes extra money from those. Sirius music stations (the only thing close to Howard's ratings) don't have commercials and don't make extra money.

Sirius does need to save money on talent. It needs to fire people who aren't Howard Stern. And it needs to pay whatever it takes to hold on to him. Or he will go back to traditional broadcast and Sirius just might not survive.

Clear Channel Offer to Howard Stern to Return to Traditional Radio?

As I predicted, as Howard Stern's Sirius deal winds down, traditional broadcasters are sending out the message that they want him back. Badly. Here's a good piece on it:

Clear Channel Wants Howard Back

But Howard is too smart to go back to Clear Channel. Clear Channel not only would make big money from Howard Stern ratings, but Howard as a direct competitor would severely hurt them. So signing Howard and then trying to bury him with old style FCC type censorship probably appeals to them. Clear Channel doesn't want a hugely successful Howard Stern.

Yet Howard doesn't need Clear Channel anymore. His time on Sirius helped free him of all his old contracts and obligations. It also provided proof positive that his absence on broadcast killed radio station ratings across the board. Now he can create his own network of traditional radio stations from scratch and build in a legal warchest to fight the FCC if they come after him. Trust me, if Howard returns to traditional broadcast, censorship will not be a problem.

Neither will money.

Will Howard Stern Return to Broadcast Radio as Conqueror and King?

As I predicted, Howard Stern does have the option of returning to traditional broadcast radio when his contract with Sirius expires this year. He's already getting offers:

Howard Has Offers

But isn't he worried about being muzzled by the FCC? Didn't he hate broadcast radio? Well, yes and no. Howard made his career in broadcast radio. He understands the medium better than any other radio host. The biggest problem is that he was way ahead of his time. He was constantly pushing the envelope and traditional broadcasters didn't understand what he was doing and often didn't appreciate it.

But since Howard has left for satellite, times have changed. The world has caught up with Howard. Gay jokes? No problem. Penis jokes? No problem. A morning DJ that doesn't simply play music? Of course. Lesbian dating? All over MTV. The big TV networks are fighting the FCC heavily on censorship and winning. Those corporations used to roll over to the FCC, and now they are following Howard's lead and battling it.

More importantly, when Howard left traditional radio it was a hotbed of crazy conservatives taking over stations who wanted FCC approval. That's pretty much gone away. On top of that, back in the day, Howard was tied into contracts with stations that weren't fully supportive, and underestimated his value. That's not going to happen again.

If Howard decides to return to traditional radio he can pick and choose his stations from scratch. He can build a huge syndicated national network and contractually guarantee they'll fight in court with the FCC if he has any problems. If he wants, he can fill hours more of programing with the after show, Bubba, Riley Martin and other programing from his two satellite channels. He could have a late night "Best of Howard Stern" program. And demand more money that God. In other words, he could return to traditional radio as a conqueror and king.

And that just might appeal to him.

Are you listening, Mel?

How Much Will You Pay to Listen to Howard Stern? How About $500?

So here's a link to a dorky piece on the Business Week blog about how some bozo learned IT lesson's from trying to get his Sirius radio hooked up to listen to Howard.

Business Week Guy Blows $500 to Listen to Howard

First thing, it's total crap. No, I'm sure the guy spent $500 for his Howard Stern fix. But who cares? Trying to apply some IT lesson to it is bullshit. However, the guy isn't an idiot, and neither is Business Week. Putting Howard Stern's name in a blog piece means you'll get hits. So who cares if the rest is garbage? People will write all sorts of junk just to try to take advantage of the Howard Stern name to attract attention.

What is more interesting is that this guy spend $500 just to listen to Howard. No, not for the Sirius XM commercial free music, not for the multiple channels, he paid $500 up front, plus monthly fees, to be able to listen to Howard Stern. And he's not the only one. Lots of people do it. Not only that, he went to a lot of trouble to pay $500. It took hours of his time, several trips to installers, and a lot of money.

This is important to remember in an age where people supposedly have unlimited choices for free content, and supposedly don't want to pay for anything. People will pay for Howard Stern. This guy could have easily listened to his new radio, popped in a ripped CD, he could have connected an iPod with free podcasts, he could have done a bunch of stuff. But he wanted Howard and was willing to pay a lot of money for the trouble. Meanwhile, the press seems to think Howard Stern has no choice but to retire or re-up with Sirius for much less money. I don't think so.

You listening, Mel? I'm sure you are.

Sirius XM Stock Surges on Cash Flow News

Sirius XM stock is rising quickly on news that the merger has finally paid off and cash flow for the first time in 2009 is positive. In fact, really positive:

$100 Million Cash

What does this mean for Howard Stern's negotiations? A lot. First, Sirius clearly does have cash to pay him (this 100 million in positive cash flow is AFTER paying for Howard's show under his current expensive contract). Not only that, but Sirius XM is now in a position to offer Howard stock incentives, or other bonuses, other than quick cash, to stick with the company.

On his show, Howard recently floated the idea of appearing on Conan's Tonight show on one of the last few episodes. The publicity around that would be huge. But Howard dismissed it because he didn't want to fly to Los Angeles. Hidden message, imagine how much publicity Howard could generate for Sirius if he was motivated.

Will Sirius figure out a contract to motivate Howard to do another big publicity push? You can bet on it.

Howard Stern to Take Over "The Tonight Show" From Conan?

Howard, like everyone else, has been talking a lot about Conan O'Brien, Jay Leno, and the entire Tonight Show mess. Conan released a statement yesterday, trying to be both funny and serious as he refused to move out of the 11:30 slot to make room for Jay to move there. Here's a link:

Conan Refuses to Move

Much has been made about NBC's bungling of this whole thing, particularly Jeff Zucker, and if you're interested that you can check out this link:

It's all Zucker's Fault

However, it's possible Jay might have been a success at 10pm and Zucker would be considered a genius. I mean, how many more Law and Order spin offs do people really want to watch over and over? It's also possible Conan could have exploded at 11:30 on his own. He had several months to try before Jay came on before him, so that might have worked even if Jay didn't. Neither of them did anything particularly interesting or daring with their new shows, so neither is blameless. Regardless, NBC took a chance to do something new with their schedule, it didn't work, and now they need to dig their way out.

But the real reason NBC execs made a bad decision in the first place is this odd fetish these late night talk show hosts have over "The Tonight Show." Yes, Johnny Carson was very popular for many decades. And yes, in NBC corporate circles, "The Tonight Show" was an institution. But for the rest of the world, the name "The Tonight Show" doesn't mean shit. No one cares whether it comes on at 11:30 or 12:00 or at all. Jay Leno has fans that like to watch him, Conan has fans that like to watch him, but none of those fans give a damn if their shows are called "The Tonight Show" or "Taped for 11:35." Sure, more people watch television earlier in the night, so Conan has a better chance his fans will see him if he's on earlier. But "The Tonight Show," as a brand, is about as important as "The Texaco Star Hour." (This is not the case with "Saturday Night Live," which really does have a brand that talent can roll in an out of.)

Are we really supposed to feel sorry for Conan and his staff "moving their families" to Los Angeles (horrors!) only to find out he would participate in the "destruction of The Tonight Show" by moving it half an hour later? If Conan cares about that and those poor families, he can change the name and call it "Midnight With Conan." Are we supposed to believe that Conan is really worried about poor Jimmy Fallon (who just walked into a new job and should be fine). If Conan really is worried about Jimmy, he could do a half hour "Midnight With Conan."

Of course, much of this is legal posturing. Conan had a deal with NBC to host "The Tonight Show" and if he's fired he gets a big payday. So he needs to make it clear any changes are contractually the same as getting fired. Also, he probably doesn't want to remain a second fiddle to Jay all his life, so leaving NBC is probably a good idea. (Since, for whatever reason, he didn't hit the ratings jackpot at 11:30 and he's a damaged property there no matter what NBC does.)

But the fact is, there does seem to be a lot of real bitterness about not being host of "The Tonight Show." Jay is pissed about being dumped from it when he was number 1 in the ratings. Conan's pissed because he doesn't get a chance to host it longer, and even Letterman still seems pissed that he didn't get his shot at it years and years ago. It's all kind of pathetic, really, because why are these very talented guys obsessed with trying to pretend they are the next Johnny Carson circa 1980? There never will be another Johnny Carson, because he's gone and that time in television is gone. Get over it guys! Who wants to be the next Milton Berle? Try being yourself and figuring out how to make the most money doing that. "The Tonight Show" does need to be destroyed. The best thing NBC could do is kill the name once and for all so talk show hosts stop trying to base their contracts around getting to be the host of it.

Which brings us back to Howard Stern. You know what's great about him? As much as he is an expert on broadcast radio, and a scholar of it's history, he's never been obsessed with trying to take over the place of some other historical radio figure. He never wanted to be the next Arthur Godfrey or Casey Kasem or Wolfman Jack or anyone else. He never wanted to take over the American Top 40 or any other "legendary" show. Sure, he wanted to be broadcast on big stations, during good ratings periods, but he never obsessed with being on some classic station in their classic time slot. He jumped on to stations that were in trouble and made their time slots valuable. As a result, he became not only a completely unique radio personality, but surpassed anyone else on radio before or since. He did it by not trying to step into someone else's shoes, which Conan, Jay and Letterman seem obsessed with.

NBC's late night problems come in a large part because these personalities want something that doesn't exist. To be "The Host" of Johnny Carson's old show. It's gone, they can't have it, and so NBC has to keep making all sort of promises and compromises to pass it on to this person after so many years and put this person in its time slot. NBC is a business and should only be thinking about how to give each of their personalities the best chance to be seen by the most people and make the most money for doing it.

I bring this up in part because it has a lot to do with Howard's new contract negotiations with Sirius. So far, the media has gotten everything wrong about what Howard might do and why he might do it. The deal will have nothing to do with Howard's ego, or him wanting a bullhorn or him insisting on the drive by slot or anything else. Howard's new deal is going to be very smart and profitable, for him and for whoever he gets in business with. Because Howard is a genius at entertaining people in whatever medium or time slot or platform he works on.

Imagine, for a moment, if Howard Stern had gotten Conan's 11:30 Tonight Show slot. Odds are, he would have been a ratings smash. But for sure, whatever happened, no one would be blaming Jay for being a bad lead in.

In fact, maybe that's the answer to NBC's problems. Howard Stern's contract with Sirius is almost up. Why not fire Jay and Conan and give it to Howard? But odds are the first thing he would do is change the name.

Happy Birthday Howard Stern!

It's Howard's 56th birthday and he's glad to be married to someone much younger:

JUST LEAVE HIM ALONE

Some Good Artie News

Artie Lange was released from the hospital. I hope he takes some time to heal before feeling the pressure to explain everything that happened.

Artie Leaves Hospital

More Artie News

Howard has always had enormous loyalty to his team mates and don't think he isn't behind this announcement:

Stern Show to Keep Artie Lange

It's very considerate of him to make sure that potential rumors about Artie losing his job are killed before they wander around.

Get well soon, Artie!

Get Well Soon Artie

News is coming out about the reasons for Artie's hospitalization. He's a troubled guy, but he brought me a lot a laughs over the years when I was down. I hope he gets better.

Artie Lange in Hospital

Howard Stern's New Contract: Lie #5 - He Can't Retire

Finally, we reach the last and most ridiculous of the lies about Howard Stern's options when his contract with Sirius runs out. After coming up with all sorts of silly excuses as to why Howard has to take a big pay cut if he wants to continue to work for Sirius, various press then jumps to a final ridiculous conclusion:

5. Howard Stern can't retire because he loves the publicity. "he won't give up his bull horn."

First, I don't think this is true. Howard has frequently admitted he loves attention and adulation and that might be because of some childhood traumas or just surprising self-honestly. He was able to focus this desire into his work and his "delusions of grandeur" made for a lot of funny bits. (Particularly his mocking self-comparisons to Jesus.) But after twenty years of worship by the assembled masses of Howard Stern fans, I think he's over it. He's been pretty focused on specific accomplishments, got huge radio ratings, got labeled a "hero" for saving a guy's life, got great television ratings, a number 1 movie, a best selling book, a huge record album with him as a rock star, etc. Once he's accomplished a specific goal, he rarely goes backwards to repeat it. He's done just about everything and I think he could very comfortably retire without blinking.

Moreover, if he did retire, it's unlikely he would lose the spotlight even if he wanted to. Fans would continue to swamp him for decades after he retired. He would still be asked for interviews and speaking engagements. He would still be hounded at rock concerts and big events whether he wanted it or not.

But let's say, for a minute, Howard still does have some need for a bullhorn or need to be worshiped by fans. If that was true, the BEST thing he could do is retire from Sirius in particular and radio in general. First, Sirius doesn't have the audience that traditional broadcast radio did, and secondly, radio in general doesn't have the audience that television and films have.

Howard has been very successful in both film and television. Unfortunately, he can't make 500 million in either. Even the biggest stars make a heck of a lot less. But if Howard wanted, he could be on a weekly sitcom, or have a guest starring role on Law and Order in about two seconds. In film and television he would seen by a lot more people than are currently listening to him on Sirius. He could have supporting or lead roles in major films, and reach millions more. He could write books and promote them, or put on a series of rock concerts and sell out every stadium.

If any of that sounded like too much work, he could be a frequent guest on talk shows and reach all the fans he wanted. He could probably get a highly featured spot on major news channeland talk about politics, if he cared. He could have his own MTV show, and ogle pretty girls from a lounge chair. He could run his own American Idol and have massive ratings and influence.

The grind of doing a daily radio show, the best daily radio show the world has every known, prevents Howard from reaching as many people as he could if he devoted his celebrity to self promotion. But Howard, like a lot of people, likes the money. The money he can make in radio, is huge. And he's going to get it in his next deal, if he wants it.

Or he can go in film and win an Oscar. That might be something that would interest him.

Howard Stern's New Contract: Lie #4 - He Can't Go Back to Because of the FCC

You need no further proof that Howard can't win in the press, no matter what he does, than this fourth falsehood about Howard's options after his contract expires:

4. Howard Stern can't go back to free stations because of the FCC. He likely would "chafe at being censored again…" "his racy banter isn't subject to federal restrictions…"

When Howard left traditional broadcast radio five years ago, the big story in the press was that his show couldn't survive without the FCC as his principle villain. It was also claimed that without the restrictions, he wouldn't be funny and his show would get too X rated. After Howard settled into Sirius, the press then had a field day with the fact that Howard's audience had shrunk enormously, thus proving the first two points.

Of course, Howard did survive without an FCC villain and his show is funnier than ever. The number of listeners obviously dropped because people had to pay rather than listen for free. But by every objective measure, his move to Sirius was enormously successful. He made a ton of money, Sirius got millions of subscribers, and his true fans got a great show with less commercials and 24 hours of bonus programming.

However, now that Howard has the option of returning to traditional radio, no one in the press is bringing up these original points anymore. While Howard survived without an FCC villain for five years, wouldn't it be funny to hear him rail about it if he went back? "I can't believe I went back to free radio! I can't even say the s-word for poop anymore!" I think it would be funny and interesting. As far as X-rated content, we've had five years of Sal's penis running around, and Sybian vibrator rides, that stuff eventually does get old. Howard can find other funny gags to replace them, and might even welcome the change up.

Despite FCC fines and complaints, Howard was an expert for over a decade in broadcast radio of knowing exactly where the lines were and how to break them, bend them, and run around them. He could very easily slip back into a censored show if he wanted to. That is, if the money was good enough. He would also be able to reach more fans, and it might be an interesting challenge that would be fun for his hard core fans to listen to.

Finally, Howard's biggest problems with the FCC came from the fact that he had a very conservative Bush administration that was actively out to get him. It's unlikely Howard would face the same kind of censorship pressure from an Obama administration run FCC. Also, Howard was not fully supported by the broadcast stations he was being played on, because they had other conservative agendas (political ones) and business agenda's (merging with more stations) and wanted to suck up to the government. They also fell for the myth, now proven wrong, that Howard could be replaced. The huge ratings drop that followed his move to Sirius proved that wrong. Also, the most conservative station groups have failed in the over merging and desperately need someone like Howard Stern to bring back profits.

If a new station group signed up Howard to return to free broadcast radio, they would know exactly what they were paying for. Howard's new contract could have clauses forcing them to actively fight for him in court (which would make for good ratings). We're in a new political climate and the world has changed a lot since Howard was last on the traditional airwaves (gay marriage anyone?). FCC censorship would not be a big problem for Howard if the money being offered was good enough for him to dump Sirius.

Next, we'll examine the last big lie about Howard's contract negotiations: that he can't retire.

Stay tuned.