Howard Stern to Take Over "The Tonight Show" From Conan?

Howard, like everyone else, has been talking a lot about Conan O'Brien, Jay Leno, and the entire Tonight Show mess. Conan released a statement yesterday, trying to be both funny and serious as he refused to move out of the 11:30 slot to make room for Jay to move there. Here's a link:

Conan Refuses to Move

Much has been made about NBC's bungling of this whole thing, particularly Jeff Zucker, and if you're interested that you can check out this link:

It's all Zucker's Fault

However, it's possible Jay might have been a success at 10pm and Zucker would be considered a genius. I mean, how many more Law and Order spin offs do people really want to watch over and over? It's also possible Conan could have exploded at 11:30 on his own. He had several months to try before Jay came on before him, so that might have worked even if Jay didn't. Neither of them did anything particularly interesting or daring with their new shows, so neither is blameless. Regardless, NBC took a chance to do something new with their schedule, it didn't work, and now they need to dig their way out.

But the real reason NBC execs made a bad decision in the first place is this odd fetish these late night talk show hosts have over "The Tonight Show." Yes, Johnny Carson was very popular for many decades. And yes, in NBC corporate circles, "The Tonight Show" was an institution. But for the rest of the world, the name "The Tonight Show" doesn't mean shit. No one cares whether it comes on at 11:30 or 12:00 or at all. Jay Leno has fans that like to watch him, Conan has fans that like to watch him, but none of those fans give a damn if their shows are called "The Tonight Show" or "Taped for 11:35." Sure, more people watch television earlier in the night, so Conan has a better chance his fans will see him if he's on earlier. But "The Tonight Show," as a brand, is about as important as "The Texaco Star Hour." (This is not the case with "Saturday Night Live," which really does have a brand that talent can roll in an out of.)

Are we really supposed to feel sorry for Conan and his staff "moving their families" to Los Angeles (horrors!) only to find out he would participate in the "destruction of The Tonight Show" by moving it half an hour later? If Conan cares about that and those poor families, he can change the name and call it "Midnight With Conan." Are we supposed to believe that Conan is really worried about poor Jimmy Fallon (who just walked into a new job and should be fine). If Conan really is worried about Jimmy, he could do a half hour "Midnight With Conan."

Of course, much of this is legal posturing. Conan had a deal with NBC to host "The Tonight Show" and if he's fired he gets a big payday. So he needs to make it clear any changes are contractually the same as getting fired. Also, he probably doesn't want to remain a second fiddle to Jay all his life, so leaving NBC is probably a good idea. (Since, for whatever reason, he didn't hit the ratings jackpot at 11:30 and he's a damaged property there no matter what NBC does.)

But the fact is, there does seem to be a lot of real bitterness about not being host of "The Tonight Show." Jay is pissed about being dumped from it when he was number 1 in the ratings. Conan's pissed because he doesn't get a chance to host it longer, and even Letterman still seems pissed that he didn't get his shot at it years and years ago. It's all kind of pathetic, really, because why are these very talented guys obsessed with trying to pretend they are the next Johnny Carson circa 1980? There never will be another Johnny Carson, because he's gone and that time in television is gone. Get over it guys! Who wants to be the next Milton Berle? Try being yourself and figuring out how to make the most money doing that. "The Tonight Show" does need to be destroyed. The best thing NBC could do is kill the name once and for all so talk show hosts stop trying to base their contracts around getting to be the host of it.

Which brings us back to Howard Stern. You know what's great about him? As much as he is an expert on broadcast radio, and a scholar of it's history, he's never been obsessed with trying to take over the place of some other historical radio figure. He never wanted to be the next Arthur Godfrey or Casey Kasem or Wolfman Jack or anyone else. He never wanted to take over the American Top 40 or any other "legendary" show. Sure, he wanted to be broadcast on big stations, during good ratings periods, but he never obsessed with being on some classic station in their classic time slot. He jumped on to stations that were in trouble and made their time slots valuable. As a result, he became not only a completely unique radio personality, but surpassed anyone else on radio before or since. He did it by not trying to step into someone else's shoes, which Conan, Jay and Letterman seem obsessed with.

NBC's late night problems come in a large part because these personalities want something that doesn't exist. To be "The Host" of Johnny Carson's old show. It's gone, they can't have it, and so NBC has to keep making all sort of promises and compromises to pass it on to this person after so many years and put this person in its time slot. NBC is a business and should only be thinking about how to give each of their personalities the best chance to be seen by the most people and make the most money for doing it.

I bring this up in part because it has a lot to do with Howard's new contract negotiations with Sirius. So far, the media has gotten everything wrong about what Howard might do and why he might do it. The deal will have nothing to do with Howard's ego, or him wanting a bullhorn or him insisting on the drive by slot or anything else. Howard's new deal is going to be very smart and profitable, for him and for whoever he gets in business with. Because Howard is a genius at entertaining people in whatever medium or time slot or platform he works on.

Imagine, for a moment, if Howard Stern had gotten Conan's 11:30 Tonight Show slot. Odds are, he would have been a ratings smash. But for sure, whatever happened, no one would be blaming Jay for being a bad lead in.

In fact, maybe that's the answer to NBC's problems. Howard Stern's contract with Sirius is almost up. Why not fire Jay and Conan and give it to Howard? But odds are the first thing he would do is change the name.